FEBRUARY CURRENCY OUTLOOK 2019

Insight

Sterling reigned supreme as the best performing major currency in January, despite ongoing Brexit stalemate, with the pound chalking up six consecutive weeks of gains against the dollar and four against the euro. The single currency remained surprisingly resilient despite a softening of economic data and a cautious ECB while the dollar weakened as expectations of a pause to the Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening cycle grew.

Similar themes are set to dominate this month, with the second ‘meaningful vote’ on the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement key for the pound as market participants continue to expect a softer outcome to negotiations than previously thought. Elsewhere, GDP data for the final quarter of last year will give investors clues as to the extent of a global economic slowdown while US-China trade talks take on greater significance as the tariff truce draws nearer to a close.

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